Moderna expects at least $19 billion in Covid vaccine sales in 2022, reports big fourth-quarter earnings beat

Moderna on Thursday said it expects to sell at least $19 billion of its Covid-19 vaccine this year, after reporting fourth-quarter earnings that blew out analysts’ earnings and revenue estimates.

Here’s how the company performed compared to what Wall Street expected, based on analysts’ average estimates compiled by Refinitiv:

• Adjusted EPS: $11.29 vs $9.90 expected
• Revenue: $7.2 billion vs. $6.78 billion expected

Moderna reported $4.9 billion in net income for the fourth quarter. The company reported revenue of $18.5 billion in 2021 and delivered 807 million vaccine doses worldwide.

Moderna’s Covid vaccine is the company’s only commercially available treatment. The two-dose vaccine, Spikevax, was fully approved for adults ages 18 and older in the last month by the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Moderna is conducting a clinical trial for a booster shot that specifically targets the omicron Covid variant. However, it’s unclear whether there will be strong demand for an omicron booster, as new infections from the variant drop sharply in the U.S. and other parts of the world.

CEO Stephane Bancel told CNBC last week the pandemic may be in its final stage, though he said people older than 50 and those with underlying conditions will need a booster once a year.

“There’s an 80% chance that as omicron evolves or SarsCov-2 virus evolves, we are going to see less and less virulent viruses,” Bancel told “Squawk Box Asia.” However, he said there’s a “20% scenario where we see a next mutation which is more virulent than omicron.”

The FDA has not yet lowered the eligibility age for Moderna’s vaccine beyond adults. Moderna asked the FDA last summer to authorize its vaccine for teenagers 12- to 17-years-old. However, the drug regulator is reviewing data on the risk myocarditis, a rare heart inflammation, after vaccination with Moderna’s shots.

Moderna has said it will not ask the FDA to expand eligibility to 6- to 11-year-olds until the drug regulator authorizes the shot for teenagers. The company expects to release clinical trial data on its vaccine for 2- to 5-year-olds sometime in March.

The U.S. has administered more than 207 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine since the FDA first authorized the shots on an emergency basis in December 2020.