Target shares pop more than 12% as retailer boosts profits, despite lackluster sales forecast

Target will report its holiday-quarter results and year-ahead outlook on Tuesday.

Here’s what Wall Street analysts surveyed by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv, are expecting for the company’s fourth quarter:

• Earnings per share: $2.41 expected
• Revenue: $31.83 billion expected

Target, which sells a lot of discretionary merchandise such as clothing and home goods, has posted declining comparable sales for two quarters in a row. The industry metric, also called same-store sales, takes out the effect of store openings, closures and renovations. 

The company previously said it anticipated that trend would continue, even during the holiday season. It said in November that it expected comparable sales to drop by around the mid-single-digits in the fiscal fourth quarter and adjusted earnings per share to range between $1.90 and $2.60.

To attract value-focused shoppers, the cheap chic retailer has stressed low prices and higher-frequency categories, such as food and beauty. Over the holiday season, for example, the company emphasized a wide assortment of toys and gifts for under $25. Last month, it launched a new low-priced private brand called Dealworthy, including items such as socks, paper towels, laundry detergent and more, with most items costing under $10.

Compared with big-box rival Walmart, Target has faced another challenge: Groceries make up a smaller part of its business. The category draws foot traffic and steadier sales, even as shoppers cut back in other areas. Grocery drives about 20% of Target’s annual sales compared with nearly 60% of Walmart’s annual sales in the U.S.

Some of Target’s stores are also losing a separate traffic driver: pharmacies. CVS Health said in January that it would close some locations in Target stores, as part of a broader plan by CVS to reduce its store count. CVS and Target declined to say how many of the pharmacies would be shuttered.

Target will hold a financial meeting with investors on Tuesday in New York City.

As of Monday’s close, Target’s shares are up nearly 6% so far this year. That falls short of the approximately 8% gains of the S&P 500 during the same period. Target’s shares closed on Monday at $150.49 apiece, bringing the company’s market value to nearly $70 billion.

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